What’s the Road Back to a 10-7 Record for the Houston Texans?

In the Houston Texans’ first two seasons under DeMeco Ryans, the end result has essentially been the same outcome. The team found its way to a 10-7 record, and an AFC South title. In 2023, they clinched the division in the final week of the season, and in 2024, they clinched it with three weeks to go. 

Logic would dictate, especially with an ascending quarterback and head coach, that 2025 would represent another step in a championship direction. Instead, it’s been quite the opposite. The Texans have parlayed the best defense in football to a 2-4 record, largely because they’ve chained the anchor that is the league’s worst offense around this neck.

The Texans have won two blowout games against two bad teams, and they’ve lost four largely close games (or at least ultimately close on the scoreboard, in the case of the loss to Seattle). Improving upon 10-7 feels like a pipe dream. The question, more likely, is “Can they even get back to 10-7?” 

The odds would indicate “absolutely, they cannot,” as their chances of getting back to the playoffs this season currently sit at a very shaky 23 percent. However, let’s put our optimist’s hats on for a second — is there a road back to 10-7 for this currently 2-4 outfit? They’d need to go 8-3 the remainder of the season. 

Before we examine this question, here is the remaining schedule:

Week 8: vs 49ers

Week 9: vs Broncos

Week 10: vs Jaguars

Week 11: at Titans

Week 12: vs Bills (Thursday Night Football)

Week 13: at Colts

Week 14: at Chiefs (Sunday Night Football)

Week 15: vs Cardinals

Week 16: vs Raiders

Week 17: at Chargers

Week 18: vs Colts 

Now, before we break this down, let’s make it very clear that the Texans need to at least improve to slightly below average offensively to accomplish any of this. Right now, they are at the bottom of the toilet. With that said, let’s use my “Bucket Method” that I used so many times in past seasons’ previews of the Texans.

We have three buckets for the remaining 11 games. The first are “MUST WINS”. These are games in which the Texans should be favored, and have to sweep the board, or lose MAYBE one. The Texans likely need to win all of these games:

MUST WINS 

Week 10: vs Jaguars

Week 11: at Titans

Week 15: vs Cardinals

Week 16: vs Raiders

You MUST go 4-0 in these four games. It’s non-negotiable, That gets you to six wins. 

The second category are “COIN FLIPS.” These are games in which the spread is basically a one or two points either way. They have to, at worst, split on these, or perhaps have a winning record in these games:

COIN FLIPS

Week 8: vs 49ers

Week 9: vs Broncos

Week 12: vs Bills (Thursday Night Football)

Week 17: at Chargers

Week 18: vs Colts 

So, there are five games in this category, although the Bills, with Josh Allen, could catch a heater at any point and flip to a “Steal” game (more on that, in a moment). I think you have to go 3-2 in these five games, and that would get you to nine wins. 

The final category are “STEALS.” These are games where the Texans are likely a definitive, if not substantial, underdog. If you can STEAL one of these games, then that’s a huge boost:

STEALS 

Week 13: at Colts

Week 14: at Chiefs (Sunday Night Football)

I hate to say it, but a 10-7 record probably means winning one of these two road games, especially considering the team’s offense isn’t nearly trustworthy enough to count on a 7-2 combined record in “Must Wins” and “Coin Flips.” 

Man, this Texans world flipped on its head quickly. Yikes. 

The post What’s the Road Back to a 10-7 Record for the Houston Texans? appeared first on Houston Press.