Hot-tober 2025: When Fall forgets to show up
October temperatures are affecting drought and fire threats
Houston notched another 90° day this week, that makes 11 so far in October. If you’re thinking, “October’s usually warm,” you’re right… but not this warm.
Midway through the month, 2025 already ranks second for the most 90°+ days on record in October. Only last year, 2024, sits ahead with 18.
Will we break that record? I don’t think so. But with more 90s showing up in the 10-day forecast, the count could creep a little higher before Halloween.
So, what’s behind this stretch of stubborn heat?
Part of the story is long-term: our world is warming, which makes record-setting Octobers more likely. But short-term factors are playing a big role, too, mainly rainfall, or the lack of it.
Houston hasn’t recorded measurable rain since September 24. Over the last two and a half months, we’ve seen just 3.54 inches of rain, about 8.5 inches below what we’d normally expect since August 1.
That dryness sets up a self-reinforcing cycle:
- Dry soils and vegetation release less moisture into the air.
- Less atmospheric moisture means less evaporative cooling.
- Drier air heats up faster, pushing daytime highs higher.
- And the cycle repeats drying things out even more.
That feedback loop explains why we’re seeing drought declarations, burn bans, and this unrelenting Hot-tober!
A few other notes:
- We haven’t had a single below-average temperature day since September 9, more than a month of steady warmth.
- Morning lows this week have been relatively cool, but these temperatures are near normal for mid-October and reflect the very dry air in place.
- As of now, October 2025 is flirting with the title of warmest October on record for Houston, with an average temperature around 79.3°F.
What’s next?
With two weeks left in the month, expect average temperatures to trend downward. A couple of fronts are forecast over the coming days, and the 10-day outlook shows a mix: two more 90° days, but also plenty of 60s and 80s to close out October. I’ll keep an eye on how that 79.3°F monthly average shifts as we approach Halloween.
