NFL Week 9: Denver Broncos at Houston Texans

Up to this point, there has been a distinct pattern. behind the Houston Texans’ 3-4 record on the 2025 season. When the Texans win, they take battered teams to the woodshed, beating injured Baltimore, injured San Francisco, and overwhelmed Tennessee by a combined score of 96-25.

When the Texans lose, all four times, it’s against teams that are either in or around the playoffs, if the season ended this week. The four losses were to the Rams, Buccaneers, Jaguars, and Seahawks, by a combined score of 78-57. 

So if the pattern holds up, the Texans should lose a close game to the Denver Broncos, who are a largely healthy, extremely hot (five wins a row), well coached football team. They far more mirror the four teams who have beaten the Texans than the three the Texans have vanquished. Still, the Texans are somehow a 1.5 point favorite this Sunday.

So let’s take a look at four big things, in the biggest game of the season for the Texans, thus far: 

4. Red zone efficiency

On Sunday, the only thing separating the Houston Texans from playing a literal perfect first half of football was a 1-4 performance in the red zone, and a special teams gaffe in the final minute. We will get to special teams in a moment, but points will be at a premium this Sunday, and as such, converting in the red zone needs to happen at a much more proficient clip. When the Texans get down inside the Broncos 20 yard line, and it will likely be maybe three times, they have to come away with at least two touchdowns.

3. Special teams 

Now, special teams. The Texans defense had held the Niners’ offense to just ten plays, no first downs, and obviously no points through the first 29 minutes of Sunday’s win. Then, a long kickoff return, plus a face mask penalty by Dylan Horton, handed the Niners golden field position. Four plays later, the Niners had cut the score to 16-7. Needless to say, the Texans need to be strong in the return game, and in all likelihood, they may need a big return from Jaylin Noel to swing field position at some point in this game. 

2. Pressure Bo Nix

The Houston Texans have the most fearsome pair of edge defenders in the league in Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter. Hunter has been somewhat quiet for late, but Anderson is playing like a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Broncos QB Bo Nix has been a little up and down in his second year, but last week against the Cowboys he ran for multiple touchdowns and trhew for multiple touchdowns. Nix is talented, and athletic. Anderson, Hunter, and the Texans’ front has to apply pressure and keep him in the pocket. Nix can hurt the Texans with his scrambling. 

1. Stay big up front  

In Weeks 1 through 7 of the season, the Texans used a sixth offensive lineman on a total of 30 snaps. On a related note, the Texans’ pass protection was not good in those first seven weeks. Against San Francisco, the Texans used Blake Fisher as a sixth offensive lineman on 26 of the 80 offensive snaps they played, nearly a third of the snaps. They gave up zero sacks of C.J. Stroud for the first time, in the regular season, since Week 5 of 2023. The Broncos lead the NFL, by a wide margin, in sacks with 36 total sacks. I would expect to see a LOT of Blake Fisher again this week. 

SPREAD: Texans -1.5

PREDICTION: Broncos 23, Texans 17

SEASON RECORD: 4-3 SU, 2-5 ATS

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