Houston Texans Revised Odds To Win AFC South

It’s been a strange NFL season so far, here in 2025. Five weeks in, there are exactly zero undefeated teams remaining, and there is only one winless team (sorry, New York Jet fans). The late Pete Rozelle, NFL commissioner in the early ’80s, had a vision for parity in the league, and this season is probably the gold standard for parity. 

The AFC is a jumbled mess. The Buffalo Bills just lost at home to the Patriots last Sunday, the Steelers lead an AFC North that’s lost Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson to injury, and the Kansas Chiefs are teetering at 2-3 and at risk of losing control of the AFC West.

Then, there is the division in which the Houston Texans dwell — the AFC South. Who knew that the one division in the entire league with multiple 4-1 teams would be the AFC South? Moreover, who knew that the Texans would NOT be one of those two teams? 

All hail, the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars, I suppose. They are both 4-1, with the Colts looking particularly dominant with the best point differential in all of football at +72, albeit against one of the league’s softest schedule, thus far. 

Las Vegas will adjust the odds on winning the Super Bowl, winning the conference, and winning divisions throughout the season. It’s like the stock market. Coming into the season, the Texans had odds of -105 to win the AFC South (meaning you risk $105 to win $100). They were the favorite. Now, five weeks in, according to ESPN BET, the AFC South odds board looks like this:

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -105

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +115

HOUSTON TEXANS +750

TENNESSEE TITANS +20000 

The Colts and the Jaguars, and their 4-1 overall records, are way out in front of the Texans and in a different universe than the Tennessee Titans. On top of that, the Texans have, by far, the hardest schedule for the remainder of the season, among these four teams.

Still, I would put a sawbuck or two down on the Texans to come back and win this thing, for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, I am not a believer in either quarterback the Texans are chasing. Sure, Daniel Jones has played like a Pro Bowler in Indy, and Trevor Lawrence just led a last second comeback to help the Jags beat the Chiefs. C.J. Stroud is still the best quarterback in this division. 

Second, I mentioned that the Colts lead the NFL in point differential. Do you know who is third at +47? Thanks to their two lopsided wins, it’s the Houston Texans. Here is a fun fact for you — since 2022, 90 percent of the teams in the top 10 in point differential through Week 5 have made the postseason. That’s a stat I can get behind, realizing that winning the division is more than just “making the postseason.”

The Texans get the week off this coming weekend, and then head to Seattle for Monday Night Football. That’s followed by a three game homestand against the Niners, Broncos, and the aforementioned Jaguars. We will find out exactly what the Texans are made of soon enough, and I’ll know after that, how close I am to be being $750 richer on my $100 wager. 

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